A particular forecasting model was used to forecast a six-month period. Here are the forecasts and actual demands that resulted: FORECAST ACTUAL April 244 344 May 318 468 June 393 493 July 343 293 August 368 268 September 443 568 a. Find the tracking signal for each month.

Answer:

MONTH    TRACKING SIGNAL

April                    1

May                    2

June                   3

July                     3

August                2

September         3

Explanation:

Given the data in the question;

   A              B                C              D          E            F                   G

Month     Forecast     Actual      Error     |Error|     RSFE          MAD

                                                                              cumulative

                                                    C-D       |C-D|       of D          

April             244         344          100        100        100            100.00

May              318          468          150       150         250           125.00

June             393         493          100       100         350           116.67

July               343         293         -50        50          300           100.00

August          368         268        -100      100          200           100.00

September   443         568        125        125          325            104.17

the tracking signal for each  month will be;

Tracking Signal =  

Running Sum of Forecast Errors (RSFE) / Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)

so substitute

Month of APRIL;

Tracking signal = 100 / 100.00  = 1

Month of MAY;

Tracking signal = 250 / 125.00  = 2

Month of JUNE;

Tracking signal = 350 / 116.67 = 2.9999 ≈ 3

Month of JULY;

Tracking signal = 300 / 100.00 = 3

Month of AUGUST;

Tracking signal = 200 / 100 = 2

Month of SEPTEMBER;  

Tracking signal = 325 / 104.17 = 3.11 ≈ 3

Therefore,

MONTH    TRACKING SIGNAL

April                    1

May                    2

June                   3

July                     3

August                2

September         3

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